Fourth FGV EMAp Mathematical Epidemiology Report

Till Death Do Them Do Part: Insights from a Basic Mathematical Model in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic

In this report, we seek to understand which pieces of information about the disease can be extracted from the time series of deaths in an epidemic with dynamics similar to that of Covid-19.

We examine the initial situation of the epidemic, where cases and deaths grow approximately exponentially. We have seen that $R_0$ can be determined with reasonable accuracy, but uncertainty about lethality is enormous, which makes long-term predictions about total deaths extremely uncertain in the absence of complementary information.

See the rest of the newsletter and modeling details here (in Portuguese).