Shortages of COVID-19 vaccines hampered global efforts to fight the current pandemic, leading some experts to argue for delaying the second dose to provide earlier first dose protection to twice as many people. We designed a model-based strategy for identifying the optimal second dose delay using hospitalization rate as the key metric. We found that the optimal delay was dependent on first dose efficacy and the vaccine mechanism of action. For infection-blocking vaccines, the second dose could be delayed >8 weeks if first dose efficacy was >50%. For symptom-alleviating vaccines, this delay duration is recommended if the first dose efficacy was >70%. These results suggest that delaying the second vaccine dose is a feasible option for increasing vaccine deployment.
*Texto informado pelo autor.
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Tiago Pereira - Professor of Mathematics at the University of São Paulo and was awarded the prize of Excellence in Research Leadership by the University of São Paulo. He obtained his Ph.D. in Berlin in 2007 and was a Leverhulme Trust and Marie Curie fellow at Imperial College London. He is an Advanced Newton Fellow of the Royal Society, a grantee of the Serrapilheira Institute, an affiliated member of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences and a visiting Professor at Imperial College. A central theme of his research is the collective behavior of interacting dynamical systems. In particular, how the interaction structure can lead to new dynamics across the system.